Is My Favorite Canadian in Line for Another MVP?

It looked as if Carlos Quentin was on his way to one of the most unlikely MVP seasons in recent memory. The relative unknown was acquired by the White Sox (damnit) and exploded in his 3rd season, already with 36 HR and 100 RBI. But a wrist injury and the resulting surgery have ruled him largely out for the regular season. With the White Sox currently in a dog fight with the Minnesota Twins for the AL Central title, a race that could likely be decided by the penultimate face-to-face series for the two clubs in Minnesota, it seems that Quentin might no longer be the favorite. After all, if the White Sox pull out a division title, the most crucial stretch would’ve come without Quentin. And if the 2008 Twins, expected to finish 4th in the division this year, somehow pull it off, they have their own slugger that suddenly dwarfs Quentin in MVP consideration. But this race will not be the only deciding factor in the AL MVP race. There is a little scrapper and a rugged slugger up in Boston, a record breaking relieve on the West Coast, and a couple other wild cards that could play into the race. But when it’s all said and done, you better believe that I am desperately hoping Justin Morneau adds a 2nd AL MVP to his mantle.

Just like in 2006, when Justin Morneau won his first AL MVP Award, there is a lack of dominant candidates. I’ve read some tidbits that have stated something along the following – “Morneau can’t win, even if he deserves it, because it’d be his 2nd MVP and he is not the type of player that should already have multiple MVP awards.” Could there be a bigger pile of steaming dogsh*t? Let’s just get that out of the way right now. If a player is the most deserving in one, two, five, or ten different years only because there are no other deserving candidates, then that player is still deserving of that year’s MVP. Whether or not giving him two MVPs would wrinkly the feathers of a Willie Mays fan is a moot point. It is irrelevant. Nobody in their right mind would say Morneau is as great a player as Mays was because he has as many MVPs. Okay? Are we past that moronic argument? Good. Now, before I examine Morneau’s chances for his 2nd award, let’s take a look at some of the competition.

Carlos Quentin

Tough break...

The aforementioned slugger should really no longer be in the discussion in my opinion. Yes, he’s still leading the AL in HR and has a very solid .965 OPS. He’s also batting just .288 and has only 100 RBI. These numbers hurt him, because they are strengths of some other candidates. Regardless of his current numbers, the real thing that knocked him out of the race was his injury. His numbers now won’t get any better and as I said already, he won’t be a part of any stretch run to the playoffs by the White Sox. It’s just hard to argue for him at this point.

Josh Hamilton

The one thing he had going for him was his enormous RBI lead. Well, the lead is gone now, and his team still sucks. Sorry, Josh. Still great numbers (.306, 31 HR, 124 RBI, .916 OPS) but nothing that separates you from Morneau (similar numbers on better team).

Aubrey Huff, Alex Rodriguez, Raul Ibanez, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez

See Hamilton, Josh. Great numbers (but not historical by any means), bad teams.

Francisco Rodriguez

I already mentioned how I feel about K-Rod winning even the Cy Young, so it should be no surprise that I consider him to be 0% deserving of the MVP. If you aren’t the best pitcher in the league, you can’t be the MVP. If you aren’t the best closer in the league, you can’t be the MVP. Sorry.

Record setting closer? Yes. MVP? No.

Carlos Pena

He really shouldn’t even be mentioned here, but with the Rays edging out the Twins as most surprising playoff contender they do need someone to at least get a shout out. Pena has no shot at winning, with a measly .244 BA and 88 RBI, but he has been the Rays most productive hitter so he gets the honorable mention.

Jermaine Dye

Having a very solid year (.296, 32 HR, 87 RBI, .909 OPS) but is in a stacked lineup and unfortunately nobody is on base for him because of that Quentin guy.

Joe Mauer

He’s here for two reasons. 1) He plays a catcher, and plays it damn well. 2) He is about as good as it gets when it comes to getting on base and getting clutch hits with RISP. His HR/RBI just aren’t there, but there is no doubting that he is as valuable to the Twins as just about any other player is to their team.

Cliff Lee

Lee is having one of the best seasons for a pitcher… well… ever. An absolutely impossible record at 22-2, which currently stands as the best winning percentage for a pitcher with at least 20 decisions of all time (I think… heard it on Sportscenter the other night). He’s got a big lead in ERA, has great WHIP, and now accounts for just under 31% of the Indians’ total wins this year. If a starting pitcher was ever going to be in the running for MVP, it would be Lee this year. Unfortunately… the Indians are 5 games under .500, and for a pitcher to win the MVP, they BETTER be on a playoff team, or at least a team that contended for the postseason.

Now, the top three candidates…

Kevin Youklis

Kevin Youklis and Justin Morneau are freakishly similar this year. They have nearly identical BA, Morneau has slight edges in Runs, Doubles, and OBP, while Youk has slight edges in HR, SLG, OPS. Morneau has a fairly large lead in RBI with 124 to Youk’s 102. Their defense is so close that it’s negiligable. Red Sox fans swear that nobody plays first like Youk, Twins fans will tell them that they apparently haven’t seen Morneau (I mean, come on, the guy was a high level hockey goalie… size, amazing reflexes, great hands… it’s no wonder why he’s turning into a gold glove caliber 1B.) I think Morneau separates himself in two ways, however. First, let’s stick with stats. If the RBI lead isn’t enough to sway the stats debate in Morneau’s favor, let’s take a look at situational hitting splits. Runners on (JM – .348 BA/1.086 OPS, KY – .345/1.042), RISP (JM – .373/1.123, KY – .355/1.030), RISP 2 out (JM – .366/1.153, KY – .293/.871), Close and Late (JM – .311/.843, KY – .267/.921). Youklis has been everything you could ask for and more in these clutch situations. Morneau has been better. The second separation between the two is relative value to their teams. Who would you rather have around your slugger, 1) Denard Span, Nick Punto, Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel, Brendan Harris, Brian Buscher, Alexi Casilla, and Carlos Gomez… or 2) Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, JD Drew, Manny Ramirez/Jason Bay, Jason Varitek, Jed Lowrie. Okay, after I tell you that option 1 is in fact the main players in the Twins lineup, feel free to answer “Uhhh… #2, du’h” whenever you are ready. My point? Take Morneau away from the Twins and they are screwed. Take Youklis away from the Red Sox and they still have an all star lineup. It is Most Valuable Player after all. So which of these two has more value? It is also key to point out that Youk will likely be hurt in the voting process by…

…Dustin Pedroia

There’s a very good chance that this vote will come down to Pedroia and Morneau. In a flashback to 2006, it will be up to the voters to choose between a slugger that his team is ultra-reliant upon, or a do-it-all middle infielder batting for a mammoth market stacked lineup (Jeter in ’06). I don’t for a second want to detract from Pedroia’s value to the Sox. He’s been called on to bat up and down the batting order and has consistently delivered, including a few recent scintillating months. But it’s just hard to get over the hitters surrounding Pedroia. His job is to get on base and then get in. Not easy, but knocking guys in will always be tougher. That is why the HR/RBI men get the monstrous contracts, that is why they win the MVPs. If Pedroia won, I wouldn’t even have an issue with it. I’d be a little bummed, sure, but he’s certainly one of the 2 or 3 most deserving candidates.

If his uniform isn't dirty, Dustin Pedroia is probably not happy with his game.

Justin Morneau

Well, I incorporated the argument for Morneau into those of his competitors above, so you don’t need to hear it all for a second time. So here I put on the opposing hat and speak on two reasons why he might not win (of course, I’ll also explain why they are bogus). The first is simple, if the Twins miss the playoffs, then the debate sways towards Quentin, Youklis, and Pedroia. But even if the Twins miss the playoffs by a game or two, isn’t it still an amazing feat for the team that was supposed to finish behind the Tigers, Indians, and White Sox (and even behind the Royals in the opinions of some)? I think so, maybe not enough to give Morneau the award, but enough not to disqualify him just because they miss the postseason. The second reason is his dip in HR production. Currently, Morneau has “only” 23. This also has an adverse effect on his SLG/OPS. This is easily explainable, however, by his new approach to hitting. Morneau is not waiting for a mistake or a fastball down the pipe anymore. He is taking what the pitcher gives him and making them pay. Morneau is hitting more line drives to the opposite field than ever before, evident in his comfortable career high of 44 doubles, and counting. The result… fewer home runs, lower SLG/OPS, but possibly better RBI, better hitting, and especially better hitting in tight situations. As a Twins fan, I’ll gladly give up 5-8 home runs for an extra 10 singles, 10 doubles, and 10 RBI.

The swing of a two time AL MVP? Maybe.

There is still plenty of season to play and it’s clear that there is no winner at this point. I am confident, however, that if the Twins make the playoffs, voters will find it very difficult to vote against Morneau as the AL MVP. I really, really, really hope that no voters show remorse for the 2006 outcome and decide against giving Morneau their vote this year, because that would be an offense worthy of losing their voting privilege. If Mornea wants to make it easy, he simply needs to keep doing what he’s doing. Drive guys in, get on base, help the Twins win, and the award could very easily be his.

Agree? Disagree? Tell us how you rank the AL MVP candidates in the comments below.

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Tags: AL MVP, Alex Rodriguez, Aubrey Huff, Baseball, Carlos Pena, Carlos Quentin, Cliff Lee, Dustin Pedroia, Francisco Rodriguez, Jermaine Dye, Joe Mauer, Josh Hamilton, Justin Morneau, Kevin Youklis, Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera, MLB, MVP, Raul Ibanez

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