Winner Winner Chicken Dinner-Week 2

In our first week we went 8-7, certainly respectable when trying to bet every game ATS, but not what we ideally want.  This week, we’re looking to go at least 9-6 and I think we can.  So on to the picks:

Green Bay (-3) @ Detroit

Is this a trap line?  Yes.  And am I falling for it, yes.  Look, the Packers are a really good team.  They could win the NFC Championship so long as Aaron Rodgers plays average.  I think the Lions are a 6-10 or 7-9 type team.  When you get a line that small you normally think something is up, but in this case, I think Vegas just screwed up.  I’ll take the Pack.

Oakland @ Kansas City (-3.5)

Now, I know we just said we shouldn’t overreact to week 1, but the Raiders really stink.  They looked absolutely lost out there despite playing against a pretty soft defense overall (I know the Broncos can play the pass but they stop the run about as well as Vanilla Ice reps the street.  Now they go into Arrowhead where they will face a team that almost beat the Pats (I know sans Brady but still, they are the Pats).  I like the Raiders chances less than I like watching “The Closer” marathons.

New York Giants @ St. Louis (+8.5)

No team should be 8.5 point dogs at home against a team that could only score field goals against a Redskins defense that looked like they wanted to get beaten down.  I know the Rams got smoked by the Eagles as if they were a 3-leafed plant rolled by Method Man and Redman but come on!  They do not deserve this lack of respect from Vegas.

Indianapolis @ Minnesota (+2.5)

I really think the Colts have some problems.  Once again their defense looks terrible against the rush and Manning looked completely out of sync with the offense (why didn’t Addai get the ball more?).  If the Bears can put up 29 against this team, so too can the Vikings and I just don’t think the Colts have enough offense to score 29 points or more against a good Vikings defense.

Tennessee @ Cincinnati (-1)

What a tricky line by Vegas here.  Your first reaction is to go with Tennessee because they beat a good Jags team last week and Cinci got punched in the mouth by Baltimore.  But on the road, Tennessee is a completely different team.  I expect Palmer and gang to bounce back as well as a cool touchdown dance from Ocho Cinco.

New Orleans @ Washington (-1)

Everyone wants, no, craves the Saints to be good.  For this reason, one has to pay a tax to bet on them.  Similarly to with the Colts and the Pats, this line is off by about a point to two points.  That reason alone is enough for me to pick a Redskins team I still think is pretty good.  The Saints on the road are a far different team.

Chicago (+3) @ Carolina

Are the Bears back?  Maybe, maybe not, but their defense certainly looks good.  The Panthers got a terrific win last week but it’s about time for their inevitable underachieving game they do about this time of every year.  Personally, I think this line will nail the differential perfectly so when that is the case, go with the dog.

Miami @ Arizona (-7)

The Cardinals are really not that good but I see no way the Dolphins slow them down offensively and Chad Pennington’s arm strength is that of a girl scout.  This game could get ugly really fast a la Eagles-Rams.

Buffalo @ Jacksonville (-6)

The Jags keep losing offensive lineman (which is more devastating in my opinion that losing your starting running back) but they are going to be fired up for this game.  The Bills looked great at home but young teams tend to struggle on the road.  I expect the Jags to win this one fairly easily.

New England (+2.5) @ NY Jets

What would the line be if Brady were healthy?  6?  7?  Maybe as high as 10?  Well I think the Pats are a pretty good team even without Brady and you can bet that defense will be eager to prove that when they face the Jets this week.  Bellichick will confuse Favre into mistakes and the New England run game might get their faces taken off milk cartons, because they’ll be found.  I think this line is ridiculously off.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (+6)

Classic overreaction to week 1 type line.  The Browns looked awful against the Cowboys so they are being terribly undervalued (by three points in my opinion) and the Steelers looked great against an over-hyped Texans team.  In a rivalry game like this with two good teams, the line should be closer to 3.  For that reason, I’ll take the Browns.

San Diego (-1.5) @ Denver

Everyone expects Cutler to keep this up because he did it against the Raiders.  I could have thrown for 200 yards against that awful pass rush.  LT simply owns the Broncos and I think Norv will realize that if he wants to win (and keep his job), LT needs 30 touches.  He reaches that number, the Chargers win this.

San Francisco (+9) @ Seattle

Not a homer pick at all.  The Hawks simply don’t have anyone to throw to.  The line is way too big considering Hasselbeck’s limited options.

Atlanta (+8.5) @ Tampa Bay

The Bucs are not a team that blows you out of the water so 8.5 is a little big for me.  I do expect the Bucs to win though as Ryan will be more dazed confused than Grateful Dead fans after a concert when seeing the Tampa Cover-2.  This is pretty much a toss up for me but if I have to bet it, I’ll take the points.

Philadelphia @ Dallas (-6.5)

Dallas is legit.  Philadelphia may be legit.  I want to see the Eagles do it against a good team like the Cowboys before I believe it though.  I just don’t see the Eagles stopping the Cowboys very often.

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