Pick Your Knows
I figure I’ll start doing some weekly picks for the football season. Not every game, and not just the easy ones (won’t do games with a spread greater than or equal to 7), just 5 or so random games each week. I’ll pick the outright winner, the winner ATS (against the spread) and the O/U (over/under), and keep track of my record… which will probably be about as good as any team from the NL West. I’ll try to get He Hate Me to do the same… he is a much more willing and able gambler than myself so it would make sense.
1. Washington +3.5 @ NY Giants
Fact of the matter is, the Giants were really not that great of a football team last season. Last regular season, not postseason. I don’t expect them to suddenly become a 14-2 team just because they won the Super Bowl. The Redskins, however, were not a great team either. I do like them just a tad more than the Giants to start off the year, but not enough to win in New York.
Washington 17 – NY Giants 20. Giants win outright, Washington covers, Under 41.
2. Dallas -5.5 @ Cleveland
Cleveland is banged up just enough to let this one get a hint ugly. Dallas’ defense is better and I think that’s where they separate themselves in this one.
Dallas 34 – Cleveland 24. Dallas wins outright and covers, Over 49.
3. Minnesota +2.5 @ Green Bay
I have to pick the Vikings over the Packers, don’t I? Isn’t it like a law for Vike’s fans to do so? It’s gotta be. I hate the Pack. Hate them. Jared Allen is going to make Aaron Rodgers eat turn and KevPat Williams will do the same to Grant. Jackson will be a little shaky under the Monday Night Lights, but I think my boys in Purple pull out a low scoring affair.
Minnesota 16 – Green Bay 13. Minnesota wins outright and covers, Under 38.
4. Arizona – 2.5 @ San Francisco
I don’t love Arizona, but the Niners are pretty bad. As long as no flies land on Warner’s throwing arm and cause a compound fracture, I like the Card’s strong O to beat out the Niner’s strong D. Fitz and Boldin are too much, even with the improvements the Niners have made in their secondary the last couple seasons.
Arizona 20 – San Francisco 13. Arizona wins outright and covers, Under 42.
5. Seattle +1 @ Buffalo
I am slightly surprised that Buffalo is favored, even if only by 1 at home, but upon further review I suppose it makes sense. Buffalo was a young team that went 7-9 last year, while Seattle was an old team that went 10-6. Say Buffalo improves by a game and Seattle gets worse by a game, which may even be conservative estimates, suddenly the teams are only a game apart. So, long story short, I like Buffalo to win and by more than a single point. I think 20 points may be too many for the still young offense against a very stout Seattle defense, but throw in a defensive touchdown and a couple field goals, and suddenly the Bills O just need find the end zone once.
Seattle 17 – Buffalo 20. Buffalo wins outright and covers, Under 39.
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Current Record
Win Outright: 4-1
ATS: 3-2
O/U: 2-3
Overall: 9-6
Tags: Against the Spread, NFL, odds, picks, Vegas
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