Fantasy Football: Quarterback Rankings (Part I)
Next up in Second Jumpability’s Fantasy Rankings is the most difficult position in sports – quarterback. The QB is the brain of an NFL offense. They need to understand what every player on the field is doing at all times, and typically have but a few seconds to react to lightning quick changes that unfold before them. They are equally important in fantasy. In most standard leagues, you get one QB in your lineup each week. It’s go big, or go home. A big week from your QB starts things off right and can yield big points. It’s a position with a clear favorite, an undeniable second tier duo, and about a dozen others that odds are will be leading most of your teams.
1. Tom Brady
D’uh. There is not much explanation needed here. The only real insight I have is this, don’t expect a repeat of last year. The Patriots were determined to give just about every person associated with the NFL a giant middle finger last year, and that meant throwing in the end zone on 4th and 1 late in a game up 34 points. Don’t expect that this year. But guess what? Doesn’t matter. He could drop 10 TDs and 1,000 yards and still be worthy of the top fantasy QB crown. Brady is fair game after the Big 5 RBs are gone (LT, AP, Addai, Westbrook, Jackson), but don’t be surprised if he goes 3rd overall in a lot of leagues.
2008 Prediction: 38 TD passing, 4,200 yards passing, 2 TD rushing, 100 yards rushing, 16 INT/fumble, 308 fantasy points. (Based on 4 points per passing TD, 1 point per 25 yards passing, 6 points per rushing/receiving TD, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, -2 points per INT/fumble)
Be proud, Tom. You're the best.
2. Peyton Manning
Tony Romo actually outperformed Manning by about 1.5 points per week last year, but that is not enough for him too pass up Older Brother for the 2nd spot in these rankings. Peyton has been remarkably consistent with one major outlier, on the high side, in his last… well… his entire career. You can basically pencil him in for 30 TDs, decently consistent week-to-week performance, plenty of yards, and no stress about playing matchups. Peyton will probably go in the late first, early second round, but if he’s there for you late in the second, grab him and start the trash talk.
2008 Prediction: 31 TD passing, 4,150 yards passing, 2 TD rushing, 30 yards rushing, 12 INT/fumble, 279 fantasy points.
3. Tony Romo
Romo came into his own last year, and I don’t expect too big off an improvement or drop off in those numbers. As long as TO is happy and healty, Romo is going to be a top 3 QB and top 10 fantasy player overall. The Cowboy running attack will take pressure off the passing game and vice versa, so they should be as potent as ever. Romo is most likely an early third round pick, but some people will reach based on his 4th overall finish in Yahoo! standard scoring last year. He won’t go much lower than this, so if you crave one of these three, you better be willing to commit to a QB with one of your top two picks.
2008 Prediction: 32 TD, 4,000 yards passing, 3 TD rushing, 130 yards rushing, 20 INT/fumble, 277 fantasy points.
4. Drew Brees
Brees dropped off a bit last year after his marvelous opening year with the Saints, but I think he will pick up where he left off with some of his big late season 2007 games. The Saints added an offensive playmaker and a big target in Jeremy Shockey, and Brees now has three big TD pass threats (Colston, Shockey, Bush). New Orleans is going to air it out and that means a lot of yards, a good amount of TDs (and INTs unfortunately), and a lot of fantasy points. Brees is currently targeted as a late third, early fourth round pick (another great value pick if you base it on last years points).
2008 Prediction: 28 TD, 4,450 yards passing, 1 TD rushing, 40 yards rushing, 19 INT/fumble, 260 fantasy points.
5. Derek Anderson
Most of the fantasy experts have Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer above Anderson, but I don’t agree. DA came into his own last year and is bolstered by one of the more balanced offenses in the league. Braylon Edwards has become a straight beast, Kellen Winslow is one of the most productive tight ends, and Jamaal Lewis has re-emerged as a threat out of the backfield. The Browns also added another receiving threat in Donte’ Stallworth. I like Anderson to repeat his breakout year and even improve slightly.
2008 Prediction: 31 TD, 4,050 yards passing, 2 TD rushing, 50 yards rushing, 21 INT/fumble, 259 fantasy points.
I am higher on Derek Andersen than most.
6. Carson Palmer
Palmer is here because he is a decent quarterback with two (usually) big weapons. He’s also still living off his reputation from 2005, when he threw for 32 TDs and only 12 INTs. In the two years since, he’s gone for 28/13 and 26/20. I don’t expect the trend to continue with a 24 TD/ 22 INT season by any means, but I don’t think we’re going to see a run quite like he gave us in 2005. The Bengals’ running game is too inconsistent (bad) and Chad Johnson is hit or miss now (bat-shit crazy). Palmer will still put up a respectable year, however, and is worthy of a 5th round selection, after you lock up a couple backs and receivers. If you are planning to build around a QB before round 5, you better get one better than Palmer.
2008 Prediction: 28 TD, 4,100 yards passing, 0 TD rushing, 20 yards rushing, 17 INT/fumble, 243 fantasy points.
7. Matt Hasselbeck
I’ve seen too many fantasy hearts get broken by early season Donovan McNabb brilliance-before-injuries the last few years to put him in front of Matt Hasselbeck now. Hasselbeck is good, not great, but that is something I’ll take on my team if it is a complement to big name backs and wide outs. The ‘Hawks offense will no longer be guilted into giving Shaun Alexander carries, so they should flow better than last year. This is good for Matt “We Want the Ball and We’re Going to Score” Hasselbeck. He’s been going late 6th, early 7th in expert mock drafts and based on what he did last year and a few prior to that, 2006 excluded, he’s well worth a selection in that area.
2008 Prediction: 27 TD, 3,750 yards passing, 1 TD rushing, 90 yards rushing, 18 INT/fumble, 235 fantasy points.
8. Ben Roethlisberger
Big Ben had a career year and then some last season. He improved on his career best TDs by 14, without sacrificing his early career efficiency by only throwing 11 INTs. It would be asking a lot for him to reproduce those kind of numbers, but even a slight decline would still be a very solid season. He’s never thrown for a ton of yards (only 3,154 last year) and he plays crazily enough to get knocked out of any game. For that reason, I have him behind a couple of the QBs that most fantasy heads place him in front of. I would stay away from Big Ben on your team unless he falls to you in the 6th.
2008 Prediction: 27 TD, 3,200 yards passing, 2 TD rushing, 120 yards rushing, 16 INT/fumble, 226 fantasy points.
I highly suggest you nab one of these first eight QBs. The rest are either injury prone, washed up, unproven, or on bad teams. If you play it smart, maybe even a little aggressive, you should in no way be one of the 2-4 managers in your league without one of them. If you choose to play matchups with guys like Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Eli Manning, etc that is your choice, but it could lock up an extra roster spot or two to keep those options there. Wouldn’t you rather have those spots free to jump on recently promoted RBs, breakout WRs, and such?
9. Donovan McNabb
Donnie Mac (why is that not his nickname?) will be turning 32 this year and it seems that his age is starting to catch up with him. He’s performed admirably in the last three seasons since his monster 2004 campaign, but unfortunately has only stayed on the field for 9, 10, and 14 games, respectively. He could pay off as a mid-round steal, but is it worth the risk to make him your top QB? I think not. Reports are good regarding his health, but how long before the next thing? He is going late 6th in some mock drafts, and that’s just not worth it to me. (He’ll probably have a heroic comeback year… you just wait).
2008 Prediction: 23 TD, 3,300 yards passing, 2 TD rushing, 180 yards rushing, 14 INT/fumble, 223 fantasy points. You may be thinking, “Why did you predict him for only three fewer points than Big Ben after the rant about getting one of the top eight? Well, think of Big Ben as US Treasury Bond, probably not going to give you a huge return, but also not going bankrupt anytime soon (Well, give Bush a few more years and I don’t know…). McNabb is stock in a tiny Taiwanese start up. Maybe will give you tremendous value, but might also blow your fortune. Play it safe, champ.
10. Jay Cutler
Handicapping the QBs starts getting dicey here, but I like Cutler’s chances to improve on his decent sophomore season. The Broncos believe in him and are trusting him with their offense. He can make all the throws and is decently mobile, how well he performs this season simply comes down to how comfortable he becomes in his second full year as a starter.
2008 Prediction: 24 TD, 3,700 yards passing, 1 TD rushing, 30 yards rushing, 17 INT/fumble, 218 fantasy points.
11. Brett Favre
The new starting QB of the Minnes…. crap… New York Jets is coming off a renaissance of a year with the Packers, stayed in pretty good shape over the offseason, and takes over an offense with a couple threats at WR (Cotchery and Coles), a solid RB corps, and a potentially great offensive line. I think there will still be an adjustment period as he breaks in the new uni, and with Favre you never know if he’ll throw 6 TDs or 6 INTs, but he is not a bad option at starter if you wait this long to get your first QB.
2008 Prediction: 24 TD, 3,850 yards passing, 0 TD rushing, 20 yards rushing, 21 INT/fumble, 209 fantasy points.
12. Eli Manning
I have never given Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning too much credit as a viable fantasy starter, but for so long it just seemed like the kid needed confidence and the trust of his teammates. He should have that now thanks to some butterfingered Patriots and some crazy-glue on David Tyree’s helmet. He lost a big target in Jeremy Shockey and Plax is hurt (surprise) and unhappy (surprise, surprise), but Little Brother can still have a good year.
2008 Prediction: 25 TD, 3,450 yards passing, 1 TD rushing, 25 yards rushing, 24 INT/fumble, 197 fantasy points.
"Yes! I am finally a worthy fantasy starter! Barely!"
That’s it for now, feel free to let your qualms be heard in the comments. Look for Part II of the QB rankings later this week!
Tags: Ben Roethlisberger, Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson, Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Fantasy Football, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Peyton Manning, QB, Quarterback, Tom Brady, Tony Romo
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August 14, 2008 at 8:56 pm
It is interesting to note that the last time a QB repeated as the top fantasy scorer at the position it was Daute Culpepper.
Given how astronomically high Brady is going, passing on him will be fairly wise for most fantasy owners in standard scoring formats. Romo is likely to be fairly comparable this season, and you can get him a round or more later.
August 14, 2008 at 9:10 pm
“It is interesting to note that the last time a QB repeated as the top fantasy scorer at the position it was Daute Culpepper.”
I’m not exactly sure what you’re saying. The last time a QB repeated as the top fantasy scorer overall you mean? That couldn’t have been Pep… he’s only had two dominant fantasy seasons, they were not back-to-back, and the best of which came in Manning’s record setting year.
But there is one big thing that Brady has going for him… Randy Moss. As long as Moss is on the field, Brady will have it easy. Moss made Daunte look good, he made Todd Bauman look good, he made Randall Cunningham look good, he’s even made Jeff George look good. He couldn’t make Kerry Collins look good… but, well, he is human.
August 15, 2008 at 10:10 pm
I mean the last time someone at the QB position repeated as the top scoring QB. That’s why I said “at the position.” The position was quarterback. The sentence was really fairly straight forward.
Brady does have Moss. But they are also dedicated to running more this year, or so they say.
To me, Romo has T.O., and that’s just about as good. You pretty much have to pick Brady in the first round if you want him, and that is simply too high for a QB.
August 16, 2008 at 2:18 pm
It still sounds awkward. The “at the position” was far enough separated from QB to make it vague… saying top fantasy scorer means top overall to me. If you had said “at his position” instead of “at the position”, it would’ve made more sense to me.
And having TO is not “just about as good” as having Moss. Not even close. The attention Moss demands wreaks twice the havoc on a defense as TO. Moss is a touchdown threat from anywhere on the field, TO is not. Defenses are scared shitless of Moss going over the top on them, and will devote sometimes 3 DBs to ensure that doesn’t happen. Defenses will never give TO that kind of respect. There is a reason Wes Welker went off last year. There’s a reason Tom Brady’s career saw an insane spike to his previously incredibly consistent numbers.
Taking Brady in the 1st round certainly wasn’t too high last year, and I’m not prepared to be the fool that says it is too high this year. Especially after the top 5 backs.
August 16, 2008 at 3:09 pm
The same thing happened when Manning broke the TD record a few years ago. The next year everyone freaked out and took QBs way too high. The fact of the matter is that the best fantasy draft strategy year after year is to take two running backs at the top of the draft.
August 16, 2008 at 6:07 pm
We’ll see. You won’t see me taking Brady unless I have the double pick at the end of the first round most likely… but if someone takes him as high as 6, I won’t be criticizing the pick.
August 17, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Yeah. I’m going RB-RB because that’s what I do. But I don’t see anyone losing a league because he has Brady on his team.