Who Should you Draft #1 Overall in your Fantasy Football Draft?
It’s a predicament in any fantasy draft, in pretty much every format: LT vs AP/AD. Who do you take with the #1 pick in your fantasy football draft. It’s really between these two (outside of PPR leagues). Sure, one could make a case for Brady in a 2-QB league or if they are an ignorant Pats fan who sweats their QB like it was Giselle, not him, under that helmet, but really, it’s between these two guys. While some might tell you that you can’t go wrong either way, I tend to disagree. I think you can go very wrong. Do yourself a favor, draft LT and enjoy popping those Sparkling Cider bottles when you take your fantasy crown.
Last year, in a standard yahoo scoring format, LT averaged 18.31 points per week and AP averaged 15.86. But that doesn’t really tell the whole story. Peterson got 15 carries or fewer in one half of the games he
played in. When he got more than that (or a full time starter’s load) he averaged 24 fantasy points! That is
They're both so good. But who is the #1 pick?
some serious #1 pick material. Adrian Peterson is 23 years old. Ladanian Tomlinson is 29, right around
the time when running backs start to decline. So why am I so high on LT over AP? A number a reasons:
1. Injuries
Adrian Peterson missed two games last year with a knee injury. He missed time in college with a broken collarbone. Is he injury prone? Absolutely not. He is not the Ken Griffey Junior of football (a guy who could give himself a concussion brushing his teeth in the morning)…
***Speaking of Ken Griffey Jr. Is there anyone aged 20-28 who doesn’t love Griffey Jr.? He might still be a top 10 most popular player in the bigs. I don’t know if it’s his video game or the fact that he rocked the backwards cap in the home run derbies, but this guy is ageless when it comes to being a fan favorite. He is the anti-Bonds. He is the George Clooney of baseball. No matter how old he gets, people still dig him. Problem for Griffey Jr. is he has me all over him whereas Clooney has college cheerleaders.***
…but the man has gotten hurt quite a bit and when you are talking about two players as close in talent as these two are, that makes a difference. Meanwhile, LT has been a starter in all but one game in the regular season since his career began. One game! The man is more durable than the mop shoe and from what I can tell from those commercials, that is one durable mop! The fact is, the more games you play, the more you will contribute on a week to week basis. It means fewer losses and let’s face it, fantasy football is about making the playoffs first and foremost. Once you’re in, anything can happen.
2. Consistency
LT is the model of consistency. He has reached at least 1750 yards from scrimmage each of the last six ears. In that same time, he has found pay dirt at least 18 times each season, including his massive 31 touchdown performance in 2006. Touchdowns in fantasy football are no different than hitting the homerun in the bedroom. You wake up the next morning feeling like a champion. Food tastes better, the air is fresher, and you are the envy of your buddies. Unless it was a fat chick and in that case, a piece of your soul leaves you forever. LT hits you homeruns, period.
Adrian Peterson on the other hand, lacks consistency. Last year, he only scored a touchdown in half of the games he played (7 of 14). He had five games in which he scored less than 10 fantasy points including his sweet 0 point game against the hapless Niners. I can’t even imagine how A-pete owners felt after that week. They were probably so built up, expecting a huge performance from their man coming off a 24 point outburst the week before and now going against such a porous defense, only to be completely humiliated. They got straight Matrixed. Remember how we all loved the first Matrix, then we expected the next ones to be equally sweet? Only they kind of sucked and at the end of it we wondered why the Hell we spent $10 to see such a crappy movie. And then we realized that Trinity wasn’t really as hot as we remembered in our fantasies and that Keanu Reeves is about as good an actor as that bush I walk by every morning to go to work. Yeah, well that was the feeling that AP owners had on that fateful week.
Fact is, we need consistency from our fantasy performers. Sure, those 24 pointers win us weeks, but those 0 point efforts lose us weeks as well. In a week-by-week fantasy format, you need those solid 16 point performers each week and Peterson provides too much volatility for my liking.
3. The QB situation
Adrian Peterson plays with perhaps the worst quarterback in the NFL (apologies to Alex Smith). Tavaris
Jackson couldn’t start for my flag football team and it boggles the mind how he has a starting job in the NFL. What is more perplexing is that the Vikings stand so firmly behind him. There are actually front office people that wouldn’t want Favre because they worry about the possibilities of stunting Jackson’s growth. Jackson’s growth!!?!?!? Are you kidding me? Jackson is a benign mole. You think he might be something dangerous until the doctor tells you he is nothing to worry about. Then you kind of just ignore him and let him chill where he is in peace and harmony. That is how teams treat Jackson when they gameplan. They don’t worry about him. And if you think Beranrd “Butter Fingers” Berrian will change anything then you are either a Vikings fan or dumber than Joakim Noah after winning an NCAA basketball championship.
For this reason, teams are going to stack the box against the Vikes. Teams will be more prepared for Adrian than they were last year and that will adversely affect his performance. Look at AP’s second half last year. From Week 10 to Week 17, he only had 2 games where he eclipsed 10 fantasy points. Teams caught on to the fact that Jackson throws like an injured wildebeest and altered their gameplans accordingly. Until the Vikes get a better QB, I expect more of the same.
4. Versatility
LT scored 3 receiving touchdowns last year and had 60 catches. AP, on the other hand, had but a single receiving touchdown and only 19 catches. Throw in the fact that LT has 6 passing touchdowns over the past 3 years and you can clearly see that LT is the more versatile back.
Versatility makes LT the safer pick here. If you stop him on the ground, he’ll get you in the passing game, or
will even become the QB. AP needs to run to be a productive runner to have fantasy value and for reasons mentioned earlier, this could be a problem.
Adrian Peterson is good…very good. But be warned, he is the good looking high school classmate who takes the “Freshmen Fifteen” club a little seriously, and comes back after the first year looking like Carlton from the Fresh Prince (has anyone seen him lately? He looks like he is having an allergic reaction to EVERYTHING!).
LT is the quiet girl who doesn’t really go to parties and doesn’t put out so no one really goes after her, but then when you see her again at your five year reunion you think, “why the Hell did I not go after her in high
school?” Don’t date Carlton Banks. Vote LT for the universal #1 pick in your fantasy football draft.
Thanks for reading,
-The Pro-LT club of Second Jumpability
Tags: #1 pick, Adrian Peterson, AP, Fantasy Football, LT, Tomlinson
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July 25, 2008 at 10:09 am
Great article guys! Very informative! I’m putting you guys in my daily blog rotation.
July 25, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Not a fan already…shot at the Pats fans come on don’t be ignorant. You want to be fan friendly all around when it comes to a general sports blog. Team blogs are an entirely different thing.