Who Should you Draft #1 Overall in your Fantasy Football Draft? The Case for Purple Jesus.
While I actually lean slightly towards the LT camp on this one, there remains a strong case to draft Adrian Peterson 1st overall in your 2008 fantasy football draft. Be it scoring settings, management personality, or a strong inclination for the color purple, there are several reasons to love All Day.
1. Potential
Last year, Adrian Peterson totaled 1,609 yards from scrimmage and 13 TDs. As a rookie. While missing 2 games. While splitting carries for most of the season. Sure, the Vikings still have Chester Taylor, and yes, Peterson could very well miss some time again this year. But what if Brad Childress does the right thing, and makes AP the clear lead back? He’s already said that Peterson will figure much more in the passing game this year, which should be somewhat improved due to the growth of Tavaris Jackson and Sidney Rice and the addition of Bernard Berrian. And what if the Vikings defense turns out to be as scary on the field as it looks on paper? That could mean several things - the Vikings dominate the clock (more running), the Vikings have several leads (more running), or they have enough comfortable leads that AP can rest late in games to reduce injury risk (this could be good or bad I suppose). To put it simply, Adrian Peterson has the potential to explode.
Big things are expected from Purple Jesus this season.
We’ve seen the best LT has to offer, and that probably won’t happen again. We know his ceiling, we can project accordingly. We don’t know how high Peterson can go, and that uncertainty draws us towards him. If LT puts up 1,800 yards and 28 TDs, nobody will be surprised and nobody will be impressed that you took him 1st. But if AP eclipses 2,000/20, and you passed on him, you will regret it and probably be deemed a joke by your league (even though most of them would’ve made the same move).
2. League Settings
Are you in a keeper league? Are you in a roto league? Neither of these are as common for football as they are for baseball or even basketball, but if you do end up in a draft with these settings, Peterson becomes all that more valuable. The keeper option makes it an easy choice… would you rather have Peterson on your team, locked up for 3, 4, 5+ years? Or would you rather enjoy LT’s 2-3 final big season? That’s what I though. As Vandy pointed out in his related article, Peterson had several ‘duds’ last year that would hurt you in Head-to-Head format. But if you are in roto, you will gladly absorb his volatility, shrug off the bad days, and relish in the record setting performances.
Another thing to consider would be quirky scoring settings. Last year, we were in a league that awarded an extra 6 points if a RB/WR had over 100 yards in a game, and an additional 10 points for going over 200 yards. As you probably know, Peterson had 2 games that earned both bonuses, equally an extra 32 points on the year. I give Peterson a slight edge with this type of setting because of his tendency, thus far at least, to absolutely go off and school defenses up and down the field.
3. Ah Yes… The Injury Thing
If we had written this prior to last year’s playoffs, it’d be one thing. At the time LaDainian Tomlinson was the beacon of health in the NFL. He could be considered in the same breath as Brett Favre for the top Gridiron…… Iron Man. But today? I don’t know about you, but the most lasting image in my head when I think of LT is the 2 carry, 5 yard, 1 dark visor, 1 heavy jacket performance against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. Are there any lasting concerns to that injury? Is his body breaking down, even if ever-so-slightly? These are at least valid questions to ask now, as opposed to this time last year.
4. Was 2006 an Anomaly for LT?
Throw out 2006, and LT’s historical stats from season-to-season are remarkably consistent. Don’t get me wrong, this is a good thing. You want a lead back that you can count on. But can we necessarily count on him to replicate his 2006 season? History would suggest that he is much more likely to have another solid 1,800-2,000 total yard, 18-20 total TD season. Certainly enough to be a fantasy monster, but is it enough to make you confident in taking him above Peterson, or even Brady for that matter? Maybe, maybe not. Also consider this: 2006 was essentially Philip Rivers’ first year under center. He needed LT to be that huge. Also, LT’s fullback, Lorenzo Neal, is no longer in San Diego and could be missed.
Thanks for reading,
- The Pro-AP (and coincidentally, a huge Vikings fan) club of Second Jumpability
Tags: LT, AP, Fantasy Football, Adrian Peterson, #1, LaDainian Tomlinson, Minnesota Vikings, San Diego Chargers
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